Waiting for the perfect market? Start with your own numbers.

Should you buy now or wait?

It’s probably the question I hear most from buyers right now. And usually the thinking is pretty simple: I’ll wait for mortgage rates to come down.

That could work. It also might not.

AD Mortgage’s research hub summarizes a 23-year analysis comparing buying now with waiting two years. Its headline finding: buying now came out ahead in 61% of the historical scenarios studied. Read AD Mortgage’s research summary.

That is a result from a historical model, not a prediction of your outcome or a 61% chance that buying today will pay off. The assumptions behind any comparison matter.

It doesn’t mean everyone should buy a house today. It means waiting isn’t automatically the safer decision.

A Lower Rate Doesn’t Necessarily Mean a Better Deal

Mortgage rates get most of the attention because they’re easy to understand. With the same loan amount and term, a lower rate means a lower principal-and-interest payment.

The problem is that while you’re waiting for rates to change, everything else keeps moving too.

Home prices change. Inventory changes. Competition changes. Your income and savings change.

A lower rate on a more expensive home may not create the savings you expected. Waiting could also give you time to save more, reduce debt or find a home that fits better. You have to compare the whole picture.

Oakland County Is a Good Example

National housing headlines don’t necessarily describe what’s happening here.

Redfin’s Oakland County page describes a median sale price of roughly $392,000 for the three months ending August 2026, up 1.9% from the same period a year earlier. Its August-labeled indicators also show a slightly slower selling pace and more price reductions.

There was already evidence of growing inventory a year earlier. The Michigan Regional Information Center’s September 2025 report showed Oakland County inventory up 4.9% from September 2024, alongside a $401,250 median sale price, 28 days on market until sale and 99.3% of list price received. View the September 2025 county report.

Realtor.com’s summary labeled September 2026 adds another perspective: active listings were up approximately 14.3% year over year, while its median sold price was still about 2.1% higher. See Realtor.com’s Oakland County market report.

A note on the numbers: These sources use different reporting periods, coverage and calculations. Their price and days-on-market figures are not interchangeable. Realtor.com labels its summary September 2026 while noting that its historical charts run through August. Use each source’s own year-over-year comparison rather than subtracting one provider’s figures from another’s.

My read: these figures don’t describe a countywide price collapse. They suggest buyers may have more choices and some sellers may need to adjust their expectations. That still doesn’t make every listing a bargain.

And even Oakland County is too broad to tell the whole story. A countywide median cannot tell you how a particular home in Oxford, Lake Orion or Rochester Hills compares with its closest competition.

Real estate is local. Sometimes extremely local. The neighborhood, price range, condition and comparable homes matter when you decide what to offer.

So, Buy Now or Wait?

The historical study doesn’t convince me that you should buy now. It reinforces why trying to perfectly time the housing market isn’t much of a strategy.

Pay attention to rates. Pay attention to prices. Pay attention to what’s happening locally.

But then look at the part that matters more: your situation.

If the numbers don’t work, waiting can absolutely make sense.

If they do work, waiting for the market to become “perfect” could mean waiting for something that never actually arrives.

The market matters.
Your personal situation matters more.